In reality we are almost exactly halfway between the third and fourth halving.

Summary

Bitcoin halving: the current situation

Bitcoin halving: The great expectation of bitcoiners

Halving: the meaning

Bitcoin halving: the current situation

In fact, the third halving took place in May 2020, which is about 700 days ago.

The next halving is expected between March and April 2024, or at the latest in early May of the same year. In all, about 1,400 days should pass between the third and fourth halving, so we are currently exactly halfway through.

In fact, the first halving took place in November 2012, roughly 1,400 days after the launch of Bitcoin’s blockchain in January 2009. The second occurred in July 2016, about 1,350 days afterthe first, and the third occurred in May 2020, again about 1,400 days after the second.

Halvings happen exactly every 210,000 new blocks added to the Bitcoin blockchain, and since one is added every 10 minutes or so on average it takes just over 1,400 days to create and validate 210,000 blocks.

210,000 is a fixed and inviolable number, but the 10 minutes is just an average, so the days between halvings could also be 1,300 or 1,500, or something else.

As of now, it is reasonable to assume that the next halving is unlikely to take place before March 2024, or after June 2024, i.e. in a range between 1,400 and 1,500 days since the last halving in May 2020.